It was a solid first half of the 2024 Formula One season, with seven different winners over 14 races. There should be more surprises and shocks in store for the final 10 events as the grid tightens further.
Verstappen wins no more than 1 race
Based on recent races prior to the summer break, McLaren has caught and surpassed Red Bull as the fastest team. Making matters worse, Mercedes also looks to have transformed into a legitimate team that can win races. That’s bad news for Red Bull and Max Verstappen, who have seen their dominance turn into frustration with the RB20.
Verstappen has won just two of the last seven races after winning five of the first seven. If McLaren polishes up its strategy department, would it really be a surprise if the Dutch national anthem is barely heard again? Several unfavorable tracks – such as Baku, Singapore, and Las Vegas – don’t help Verstappen’s odds.
Ferrari wins another race
At the moment, Ferrari winning again seems far-fetched. The Scuderia have regressed and are positioned in no man’s land as the fourth-fastest team, but don’t count the Italian side out yet. While Ferrari struggles mightily on tracks with high-speed corners, there are also a number of races coming up where a resurgence is possible.
Monza – a track that favors engine power and straight-line speed – could bring some home-race optimism. Baku and Singapore have historically been strong circuits for Ferrari, and Charles Leclerc was in serious contention to win on the streets of Las Vegas last year. It hasn’t been Ferrari’s year (again), but the tea leaves foreshadow another victory for the legendary team.
Lawson finishes season in F1 seat
Red Bull elected to keep Sergio Perez over the summer break, citing tracks he has historically performed well at coming up. Perez has seen success at Monza, Baku, and Singapore, three of the next four races. But what if his struggles continue? There’s a one-month gap between the Singapore Grand Prix on Sept. 22 and the US Grand Prix on Oct. 20. If Perez can’t regain his form, perhaps Red Bull inserts Liam Lawson in during that time off to finish the year. After all, Helmut Marko said we’d have a clear idea of Lawson’s future come September.
That’s probably Lawson’s easiest path to an F1 seat, but an insertion into RB to replace Daniel Ricciardo is another option. The senior team could pull the plug early if Ricciardo isn’t deemed Red Bull-worthy yet. Either way, Lawson feels more than deserving of being somewhere on the grid.
An 8th driver wins a Grand Prix
The 2024 season has already shaped up to have the most parity in recent memory. Since 1990, the most variation in a season for Grand Prix wins was eight, achieved in 2003 and 2012. With seven different drivers already winning a race and the RB20 faltering, the “best of the rest” have an opportunity to tie the record.
While Aston Martin hasn’t produced as many points as it would have liked since Canada, Fernando Alonso is a former world champion for a reason. Nico Hulkenberg has been showing some promise and could finally get his maiden win with a little help. Even Perez, despite a lackluster season, is still driving in a Red Bull and can win in Mexico, his home Grand Prix.
McLaren wins the constructors’ championship
It shouldn’t be surprising to see Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri near the top of the drivers’ championship, but McLaren won’t stop there. With Red Bull’s stalled development and Perez’s struggling form, it’s looking more likely that McLaren will win the constructors’ championship for the first time since 1998 – before both of its first-team drivers were born.
Maiden wins from Norris in Miami and Piastri in Hungary show that the team is at the top of its game. Norris’ 199 points are only six short of his season total from 2023, and Piastri has long surpassed his rookie points total. Positive car upgrades and solid strategy have put McLaren in the driver’s seat and could leave Red Bull fighting to catch up for the first time in three seasons.
Drivers’ championship comes down to final 2 races
It’s been a while since an F1 title battle went down to the wire. That finish might not seem likely right now considering Verstappen holds a 78-point lead over Norris in second place, and the McLaren driver has dropped 25 points from the leader since Imola onwards. Still, Norris has a good chance at making a run for the drivers’ championship.
With Red Bull on a downward trajectory and McLaren the car to beat, it won’t be surprising if Norris gets it together after the summer break and consistently finishes ahead of Verstappen. Remember, one DNF is all it takes to tighten up this title fight. Decreasing the deficit to 60 points will keep the championship fight alive in Qatar, but with even more optimistic thinking, maybe another Abu Dhabi decider isn’t crazy, either.
