The next great Japanese sensation is on his way to Major League Baseball.
On Saturday, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced they’ll be posting their young ace, Roki Sasaki, clearing the way for his long-awaited move to North America. Sasaki’s never thrown a pitch in the majors, but his exploits in Nippon Professional Baseball have fans buzzing with anticipation.
Before he officially arrives, here’s everything you need to know about the 23-year-old sensation.
Just who is this kid?
Sasaki has been pitching for the Marines, who play in Japan’s Pacific League, one of two leagues that make up NPB. His childhood was not smooth: At age 10, his father and grandparents died when the family home was swept away in the tsunami caused by the devastating Tohoku earthquake in 2011. After living with his remaining family members in a nursing home for a year, the family moved to Ofunato, Japan, where he began playing baseball.
Sasaki’s star rose rapidly in high school, where he regularly topped 100 mph and drew interest from MLB teams. However, he stayed in Japan when the Marines drafted him first overall in 2020. He debuted in NPB in 2021 and has dominated ever since.
What makes him so good?
First and foremost, Sasaki’s stuff is electric. His main pitch is a fastball that regularly gets above 100 mph. In 2023, he threw a 102.5 mph fastball that tied Shohei Ohtani’s NPB record for fastest pitch. During the 2023 World Baseball Classic, he topped 100 mph with 26 of his 28 fastballs, according to David Adler of MLB.com. His arsenal also includes a splitter and a slider with lots of movement.
Sasaki’s fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 mph to 96.9 in 2024, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic, but his overall stuff remains as nasty as you’ll find on either side of the Pacific. Here’s a small sampling from the WBC
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What’s he done as a pro so far?
Lived up to the hype. While the Marines have capped his innings to protect him, he has dominated when on the mound. In nearly 400 NPB innings, he owns a 2.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP along with a 11.5 K/9 and just 16 homers allowed. In 2022, he came to worldwide attention by throwing a 19-strikeout perfect game that included an NPB-record 13 straight Ks. He nearly did it again in his next start, throwing eight perfect innings before being pulled.
Sasaki threw a career-high 129 1/3 innings in ’22 and finished that season with a 2.02 ERA. His 173 strikeouts in 2022 were second in the Pacific League to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a pitcher you might have heard of. The following year he put up a sparkling 1.78 ERA with a 13.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, albeit in just 91 innings due to an oblique injury.
He came back to earth a bit this past year, putting up a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 129 strikeouts (10.5 K/9), while being limited to 111 innings because of fatigue. Still, Sasaki would have led the PL in K/9 and ranked fourth in ERA if he qualified.
When can he sign, and for how much?
This is still the complicating factor. Although we now know Sasaki will be posted this winter, the Marines haven’t said when the official transaction will occur. Ultimately, the exact posting date is at Lotte’s discretion.
By making the move now, Sasaki is electing to leave money – potentially a substantial amount – on the table. Because he’s being posted before age 25, he’s only eligible to sign a minor-league contract with a signing bonus that would come out of an MLB team’s international bonus pool money. The bonus pools will reset Dec. 15, so if he waits until then, his signing bonus could top out in the $7-million range. If it’s any time before that, he might have to settle for around $2.5 million, as most teams have already spent the majority of their 2024 bonus money. No team’s bonus pool will exceed $8 million in 2025.
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This is the exact same path that Ohtani followed to the majors. He left money on the table to come over early, went through the normal arbitration process for six years, and then inked a record $700-million deal with the Dodgers last offseason. Sasaki clearly wants to bet on himself similarly.
Once he’s officially posted, the process will unfold as normal under the NPB-MLB posting agreement. Sasaki will have 45 days from the posting date to negotiate with all 30 teams and sign with the MLB club of his choosing. The Marines will receive a percentage of his next contract as a posting fee. In the unlikely event he doesn’t sign in the majors within the 45-day window, Sasaki’s rights will revert back to Lotte.
What’s the downside for teams?
Given that he’s only going to cost international bonus money, there really isn’t one. The only red flags are obviously Sasaki’s fatigue and arm soreness this past season as well as his slightly declining velocity over the past few years. Long term, it could cause some worry about his durability. But it’s an easy risk to take given the low price tag.
Who’s going to be involved?
Realistically, all 30 teams should be, and if they’re not then something’s gone very wrong in that front office. Even with his lower cost creating a relatively even playing field, the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers are heavily favored to add Sasaki to their already star-studded rotation given their recent championship and long history with Asian players, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
Both the New York Yankees and Mets are said to be extremely interested in Sasaki, while his close relationship with Japanese star Yu Darvish could help the San Diego Padres in this race, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
At the same time, some within baseball told McDaniel that Sasaki may prefer a smaller market, perhaps giving teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays a true opportunity. Right now, all that we know for sure is that he’s on his way, and he’ll be a lot of fun to watch no matter where he lands.
