Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day’s action and examines their significance moving forward.
MV3?
The MVP race isn’t much of a race at all as we pass the season’s unofficial halfway mark.
A few candidates are making interesting cases, including some pleasant surprises, like Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels. But Lamar Jackson remains in a tier of his own. It’s not every day you see a two-time MVP taking his game to another level and playing the best football of his career.
This week’s matchup against Denver’s top-ranked defense by EPA/play had the appearance of an intriguing test heading into the game. But it took all of two quarters to confirm that it would simply be another day at the office for the Ravens’ offense. Jackson was in complete control, throwing three touchdowns while completing 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and a ridiculous 14.7 yards per attempt.
Lamar has been especially spectacular over the last five weeks, leading the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns during that span. He also tops all quarterbacks in EPA/dropback through nine games. The only comparable starts in league history are from some of the best QB seasons we’ve ever seen.
There’s still plenty of time, and we’ve seen MVP front-runners fall off before, but Jackson is well on his way to becoming only the seventh player in NFL history to win the award three times. Matching Tom Brady’s career total by his age-27 season would be one heck of an achievement for a perennially under-appreciated player.
In many ways, Jackson’s legacy as one of the best players of this generation is already locked in. The fact that he only keeps getting better bodes extremely well for his chances of getting over the hump in the playoffs sooner rather than later.
Could this finally be the year?
As bleak as it gets
Do you find yourself down in the dumps about the state of your favorite team? Are you wondering how it could get any worse? Try being the Saints.
Sunday’s result in Carolina made it seven straight losses after an exciting and ultimately misleading 2-0 start. Injuries have been a factor in this skid, but falling to this version of the Panthers in Derek Carr’s return to the lineup is just about as bad as it gets. The worst part – there’s no way out.
Some truly reckless salary-cap management dating back to the Sean Payton era has put this organization in an unfathomable position when it comes to roster building. New Orleans is already $61 million over the projected salary cap for next season, according to Over The Cap.
It’s become something of a yearly tradition for the Saints. You’ll hear people claim the salary cap isn’t real, suggesting that teams move money around to get under the cap all the time. But long-term negligence eventually catches up to you, and that’s what the Saints are experiencing right now.
Contractual obligations have been pushed to the future so regularly that cutting big-name players doesn’t even create salary-cap space at this point. The only way for the Saints to get under the cap, which is a must before the start of every new league year, is to restructure contracts and push even more money to the future. That means doubling and tripling down on commitments to players you may not even want around.
It’s going to take several years for this organization to clean up the mess it created for itself. So, while you can certainly call for personnel changes, like the seemingly inevitable firing of Dennis Allen, it’s fair to wonder which top coaching candidate will sign up for this.
The Saints could be headed for a long spell in the basement.
Editor’s note: The Saints reportedly fired Dennis Allen on Monday.
What did you expect?
The Colts made the curious decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco heading into Sunday night’s game against the Vikings.
I wrote about the move earlier in the week, laying out the apparently controversial case against turning to Flacco. While I understand many were tired of watching Richardson complete less than 50% of his passes and eager to make a big deal about him tapping out for a play, the potential payoff wasn’t worth sitting a player who needs reps to develop. That’s exactly what we saw play out on national TV.
Is Flacco going to complete more passes? Sure. He put up a much improved and not at all similar 59.2% rate this week. He also chipped in an interception while leading Indy’s offense to a pair of field goals. In total, the Colts posted a season-low negative-0.35 EPA/play on offense, according to ESPN’s Mina Kimes.
None of this is meant to blast Flacco. He is what he is at this point in his career: an extremely fine QB who’s ideally no more than your backup. And it’s worth mentioning that the Vikings’ defense presents a difficult matchup for any opponent.
Even if Richardson wasn’t completing enough passes, his athleticism could have been useful on designed runs and as a means of dealing with Minnesota’s pressure packages. Instead, we all have to pretend that Richardson will learn something watching from the sideline as a 39-year-old veteran plays mediocre football.
The Colts sit at 4-5 heading into a meeting with the Bills, further illustrating that there really isn’t anything to be gained from playing a marginally better passer if it comes at the expense of the player who’s supposed to represent your future. Realistically, this team isn’t going anywhere this season. At best, Indy is probably looking at a one-and-done appearance in the wild-card round. Is maximizing that limited potential more important than seeing things through with a supremely talented 22-year-old quarterback?
Smart teams should be calling the Colts before Tuesday’s trade deadline to see how genuine they are about their belief in Richardson. The handling of this situation calls that into question.
Quick slants
Look how far they’ve come
Remember when Detroit rolling into Green Bay pretty much guaranteed a win for the home side? Times certainly have changed. Another outstanding effort by the Lions gave them their third straight road win in Green Bay, the first time they’ve accomplished that feat since 1988. Maybe it’s a different game without the rain, or if a groin injury doesn’t hobble Jordan Love. But don’t be so sure. Detroit’s offense isn’t making mistakes right now. Jared Goff has thrown just 24 incompletions during the team’s six-game win streak. The Lions’ offense has 28 touchdowns over that stretch. This is the most complete team in football right now and should be everyone’s favorite to come out of the NFC.
Commanders keep getting better
It may be hard to believe, but this Commanders team is absolutely for real. It’s not just the offense, either. Washington’s defense didn’t get off to the best of starts this season, ranking a distant last place in EPA/play over the first three weeks, according to TruMedia. That same group is tied for seventh over the six weeks since. Dan Quinn may not have seemed like the most spectacular hire, but the results speak for themselves. The efficiency of this turnaround should provide hope for all the other sad-sack franchises in the game today. Making the right hire at head coach and hitting on your QB pick in the draft can be all you need to get rolling.
More of the same
Something had to give. Chicago’s offense entered this week ranked 29th in pressures allowed, while Arizona’s defense was 30th in defensive pressure rate. But anyone who’s spent any time watching the Bears this season can probably guess how this one shook out. Even the favorable matchup in Arizona wasn’t enough to get the protection plan sorted out, as Caleb Williams was again under constant duress.
As if you needed another reason to doubt the competence of this coaching staff, Williams remained in the game throughout the 29-9 loss and limped off the field after getting banged up on the final play. The Bears must make major changes to avoid wasting one of the league’s brightest young talents.
Herbert balling
The Chargers leaning so heavily on the run game isn’t going to get Justin Herbert as much recognition as he deserves, so we’ll attempt to make up for it here. Finally afforded some stability with a new coaching staff, Herbert is unsurprisingly playing at an All-Pro level. There are multiple throws in every Chargers game, no matter what the final stats say, that offer a reminder of his standing among the NFL’s best. Give the Chargers an offseason to add weapons around him, and the elite-level production will likely follow. At that point, there will be little argument against his case as one of the top-five quarterbacks in the game today.
Rams building something
You’ve already seen high praise for the Rams’ drafting prowess in this space, but it’s worth rehashing after this week. This was supposed to be a rough year for Los Angeles’ defense. How could we expect anything different after an already thin group lost an all-time great? The rapid growth of this Rams defense, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jared Verse, has been one of the best stories of this season. And Sunday’s effort may be the unit’s most impressive yet, as L.A. got to Geno Smith for seven sacks and three interceptions before coming up with a huge fourth-down stop in overtime. The defense’s knack for making big plays will allow the Rams to compete if the offensive skill players stay healthy.
Not quite ready
A 5-3 start made the Broncos one of the NFL’s most pleasant surprises over the season’s first month. They may challenge for a playoff spot down the stretch, but this week’s result suggests the hot start was at least a little bit inflated by a favorable schedule. The defensive magic ran out against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, with Denver giving up points on seven straight drives from the middle of the first quarter on. And this isn’t the kind of offense that’ll stand much of a chance in a shootout. Sean Payton has the Broncos heading in the right direction, but it’s going to take some time.
Deadline shaping up nicely
The argument for pushing back the NFL trade deadline has always been that a few extra weeks could help teams better understand how they stack up for the stretch run. There should be no uncertainty on that front this year. Through nine weeks, there are already 11 teams with at least six wins. On the other end of the spectrum, nine clubs have two victories. There’s a real opportunity for the trade market to pick up in a big way before Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.
A surprise trade candidate?
Recent trades involving the biggest names available at receiver have the potential to impact the excitement of deadline day. But can we be sure that the crystal-clear divide between contenders and pretenders won’t lead to a surprise deal or two? It’s a long shot, but what about Tyreek Hill? The Dolphins are pretty much cooked at 2-6, and their offense doesn’t have the same juice as years past. Hill hasn’t managed anything close to his typical impact, even when Tua Tagovailoa has been on the field. Could a Dolphins team that needs to reset the roster and the cap situation potentially be open to an offer while Hill’s value is still in the neighborhood of a premium draft pick? He could be the one player the Chiefs are willing to go all-out to get.
