It’s only appropriate that a groundbreaking WNBA season ends with more history.
The New York Liberty will either win their first-ever title or experience heartbreak as they watch the Minnesota Lynx hoist a record-breaking fifth championship trophy on their home floor.
Three of the four Finals contests so far were decided by three points or less, so expect Sunday night’s winner-take-all showdown to go down to the wire.
Here are three keys that will determine the 2024 WNBA champion.
Which stars bounce back?
It was a tough night at the office for Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu as the Liberty attempted to close out the Lynx. The All-Star duo shot a combined 10-of-36 from the field – including 0-for-9 from deep – in New York’s Game 4 defeat. Stewart missed her first eight shot attempts, as Napheesa Collier – the reigning Defensive Player of the Year – used her length and athleticism to disrupt the two-time Finals MVP. Minnesota also had success throwing an extra defender on Stewart whenever she caught the ball within the arc, and they were prepared to provide help if the Liberty forward drove to the basket. It was a similar story for Ionescu, who was consistently swarmed in high ball screens and run off the 3-point line.
Collier, meanwhile, was held to 40% shooting for the second consecutive contest, even though the Lynx lived to fight another day. Stewart’s ability to cut off Collier’s drives and challenge any shot with her 7-foot-1 wingspan has been crucial in slowing down the WNBA’s record holder for points in a single postseason. As for Minnesota guard Courtney Williams, she was running on fumes. After a strong start to Game 4, fatigue certainly set in, as she managed just two points on 1-of-6 shooting over the final 20 minutes of play and settled for five contested mid-range attempts instead of taking the ball strong to the basket.
It’s unlikely all four players will struggle to the same degree in Game 5. The series could simply come down to which stars bounce back.
Unsung heroes
Each team’s supporting cast has been vital during the championship series. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton stepped up for the Liberty in Game 2, pouring in 20 points along with her usual stellar perimeter defense. Sandy Brondello has been managing Laney-Hamilton’s minutes since her return from injury in late August, but the New York head coach has deployed her for over 31 minutes of action in three straight matchups. Meanwhile, Leonie Fiebich has been a steady contributor on both ends of the floor since she was inserted into the starting lineup for Courtney Vandersloot at the beginning of the playoffs. The 6-foot-4 forward is averaging 13 points and shooting a sizzling 50% from downtown across four Finals appearances. Her 115 points during the Liberty’s playoff run is the second most by a rookie in WNBA postseason history, trailing only the legendary Maya Moore.
On the Lynx’s side, a number of role players rose to the occasion in Game 4 to keep their season alive. Starting center Alanna Smith battled through a back injury to provide support for her teammates on the backline and another floor-spacing option. Second-year reserve Dorka Juhasz got the surprising nod over veteran Myisha Hines-Allen and did a great job alongside Smith. Juhasz’s stats don’t jump off the page, but her defensive physicality and willingness to hit the deck to force a tie-up didn’t go unnoticed. Bridget Carleton made a series of timely plays outside of her game-winning free throws. After staying vertical against Nyara Sabally on a point-blank attempt, Carleton took a charge from the German center with the Liberty threatening to re-take the lead in the third quarter. Carleton also knocked down a key 3-pointer with 3:14 remaining to give Minnesota some breathing room and made Ionescu’s desperation attempt at the buzzer as difficult as possible.
Rebounding battle
While there isn’t much separating the two teams in this series, New York has the upper hand when it comes to rebounding.
The Liberty are averaging 7.3 more boards than the Lynx and boast a plus-23 advantage on the offensive glass. Jonquel Jones and Stewart are averaging a combined 18 rebounds per contest.
New York’s dominance on the glass has in turn resulted in a 47-34 edge in second-chance points through four games. The extra possessions generated by the Liberty are leading to putbacks for their bigs and opening threes with Minnesota out of position and unable to defend the perimeter. And even when New York isn’t capitalizing on its second chances, it’s at least taking away possessions from the Lynx and disrupting their offensive flow.
