Bryce Harper made his intentions clear in March 2019 when the Philadelphia Phillies unveiled the $330-million star tasked with leading the franchise out of a lengthy rebuild.
“We want to bring a title back to (Philly),” Harper said during his introductory press conference.
Harper and the Phillies have accumulated a lot of success over the six seasons since, but they’re still waiting for that parade.
The division-rival New York Mets bounced Philadelphia from the NLDS last week. It’s the first time the Phillies have failed to reach the NLCS in three seasons. Despite improved regular-season performance, the club is seeing an alarming playoff trend during its World Series window.
“It’s hard to win,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said at Tuesday’s end-of-season press conference. “There are a lot of good clubs out there.
“I don’t think there’s any secret formula. Sometimes you play well, and sometimes you don’t, and it breaks your heart.”
You can blame playoff randomness and the Phillies running into a red-hot Mets team for their playoff failure. But the club’s offense collapsed for a second straight postseason, while the bullpen imploded following an excellent regular season.
Dombrowski said he believed he had the talent to win a World Series and was confident going into the playoffs, but things didn’t come together.
“The answer is not the missing piece; it’s playing well at the right time,” Dombrowski said.
So, where does the organization go from here?
Financial outlook
Dombrowski has built a loaded team with a heavy financial commitment from owner John Middleton. The Phillies won the sixth-most contests in franchise history this year and sent eight players to the All-Star Game.
Philadelphia exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in four straight seasons and looks well on its way to blowing past the $241-million limit in 2025. Before making a move this winter, the Phillies’ projected payroll sits at $258 million for next season, according to FanGraphs.
Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber are each set to make at least $20 million in 2025.
“I told Dave, since the day he arrived here: ‘Your job is to figure out what you have to do to put a championship team on the field,'” Middleton told Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated earlier in October. “My job is to figure out how to get you the money to put the championship team on the field.”
Philadelphia’s only departures this winter are pitchers Carlos Estévez, Spencer Turnbull, and Jeff Hoffman.
Dombrowski said it’s hard to imagine bringing Hoffman and Estévez back.
“I don’t see us spending that type of money on two relievers,” he said.
The Phillies ranked fourth in MLB in OPS, fifth in runs scored, and seventh in homers. Even if they don’t make sizeable changes to the lineup, they should still score plenty of runs. After a solid first half of the season from Alec Bohm (.830 OPS), he – like the rest of the team – struggled following the All-Star break (.681 OPS).
The rotation projects to be strong again. Cristopher Sánchez is signed through at least 2028, though Ranger Suárez is eligible for free agency after next season. Taijuan Walker’s future with the club remains in question. He struggled in his first two campaigns in Philly and is still owed $36 million over the next two seasons. Adding an arm at the back end of the rotation on a short-term deal seems the most likely scenario.
Offseason Targets
While the foundation is strong, it feels like this current group has gone as far as it can go.
The vibes in Philadelphia seemed great these last few years, with the front office building a successful team that genuinely appeared to enjoy playing together. But the goal is to win a World Series, and maybe the best way to accomplish that is to shake up a club that cooled off in the second half.
“We started fantastic. We were the best team in baseball in the first half, and everybody in baseball, and all the fans were saying, ‘This is our year.’ I don’t know if expectations put added pressure, but one thing I know is that we didn’t cross the finish line,” Castellanos said.
Dombrowski should look to make some changes rather than run it back again. He opted to make limited adds after crashing out in the NLCS last season, instead signing Nola to an extension.
“We have the talent to win,” Dombrowski said. “You can dissect however you want.”
Reporters asked Harper after the NLDS loss what he thought the Phillies needed to succeed, but the star slugger directed the questions to the front office. Still, you have to believe both sides are feeling the urgency of the championship window starting to close.
“That’s a job for Dave and John to figure out what they want to do,” Harper said.
For the Phillies to improve this winter, they’ll either have to ask ownership for increased commitment, or Dombrowski will need to get creative. While the payroll is already high for 2025, there’s at least some long-term flexibility, with Realmuto, Schwarber, and Castellanos coming off the books after next season.
“(We) want to make the club better. We’re not just looking to change faces,” Dombrowski said. “We want championship players.”
Middleton has shown he’s willing to spend to win and is desperate to help Harper claim a championship. The owner signed off on $300-million deals for Harper and Turner. That works in Dombrowski’s favor with how he builds a team.
“My great-great-grandchildren might be angry at me,” Middleton told Apstein.
Juan Soto is the obvious difference-maker at the top of the offseason wish list. Handing out another significant contract is a tough sell to any ownership base, but if there’s a player to roll the dice on, it’s Soto.
Other top free agents like shortstop Willy Adames, third baseman Alex Bregman, and outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander are options. Oakland Athletics outfielder Brent Rooker could be a trade option.
Whatever Philadelphia decides, Dombrowski isn’t tipping his hand just yet.
“I don’t think we need to add more star players,” Dombrowski said. “We have as many stars as anyone in baseball. John is very accommodating and giving, but we’re still working with a payroll.
“I’m not saying we won’t get one, but I don’t think it’s a necessity.”
Another option is for the Phillies to use their financial muscle by taking on a player with some term left on a deal that another club wants to unload. The St. Louis Cardinals will likely shed payroll this winter, potentially making Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras available. Getting creative by taking on salary could also allow Philadelphia to land a player like Ryan Helsley or prospects who the team could keep or flip in another deal.
A number of other clubs might look to cut payroll due to the fallout of losing their TV deals with Bally Sports. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins are potentially set to be sold. Dombrowski should be working the phones to explore everything.
Harper wants to win to cement his legacy. Middleton wants to make Philadelphia a champion again. The pieces are there, but time is running out.
