Formula 1 is on hiatus until the United States Grand Prix on Oct. 20 kicks off six races in eight weeks to conclude the season. Six races: That’s how much time Lando Norris has to overcome a 52-point deficit to Max Verstappen in order to become world champion.
It’s not much time, but it shouldn’t be discounted with McLaren’s current pace advantage. It’ll require execution to the sharpest detail – something Norris lacks at times – but despite its difficulty, it’s possible Verstappen’s three-year reign ends this season.
Below, we’re running through 10 season-ending scenarios. Keep in mind there are a maximum of 180 points available from Austin to Abu Dhabi: 150 points for six GP wins, 24 points for three sprint victories, and six points for the fastest lap in every race.
For simplicity’s sake, we’re awarding Norris the fastest-lap point in all his results, regardless of placement.
Scenario 1:
Norris wins 6 races, 3 sprints
Verstappen is 2nd in 6 races, 3 sprints
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 26 | 18 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 18 |
| Qatar | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 459 | 460 |
Champion: Verstappen
Verstappen owes thanks to Daniel Ricciardo, who stole a decisive fastest-lap point off Norris in Singapore.
Scenario 2:
Norris wins 6 races, 3 sprints
Verstappen is 2nd in 5 races, 3 sprints, 3rd in 1 race
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 26 | 18 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 18 |
| Qatar | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 459 | 457 |
Champion: Norris
This shows how thin Verstappen’s margin for error is, with Norris popping champagne after winning his first drivers’ title by two points.
Scenario 3:
Norris wins 6 races, 3 sprints
Verstappen is 2nd in 6 races, 2 sprints, 3rd in 1 sprint
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 6 |
| Mexico | 26 | 18 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 18 |
| Qatar | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 459 | 459 |
Champion: Norris
This scenario sees the championship tied and decided on a countback for the first time in F1 history. Norris is victorious since his race wins (nine, including the final six) beat Verstappen’s (seven). This also means the championship goes down to the wire, with Abu Dhabi’s fastest-lap point the decider.
Scenario 4:
Norris wins 5 races, 3 sprints, is 2nd in one race
Verstappen wins 1 race, is 2nd in 5 races, 3 sprints
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 19 | 25 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 26 | 18 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 18 |
| Qatar | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 452 | 467 |
Champion: Verstappen
One return to the top of the podium makes Verstappen’s life so much easier. With a 15-point advantage, he can easily afford a few more third-place finishes in exchange for a second-place spot, too.
Scenario 5:
Norris wins 5 races, 3 sprints, is 2nd in 1 race
Verstappen is 2nd in 3 races, 3 sprints, 3rd in 3 races
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 19 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 26 | 15 |
| Brazil | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 18 |
| Qatar | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 452 | 451 |
Champion: Norris
This is where someone like Oscar Piastri and Ferrari come into play. They’ll alter the race by stopping Verstappen from finishing second when Norris wins.
Scenario 6:
Norris wins 4 races, 3 sprints, is 2nd in 2 races
Verstappen is 3rd in 6 races, 2nd in 3 sprints
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 19 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 19 | 15 |
| Brazil | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 26 | 15 |
| Qatar | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 15 |
| Total | 445 | 442 |
Champion: Norris
Four victories in six races is still enough to pull Norris through, but it gets significantly harder from here in our exercise.
Scenario 7:
Norris wins 3 races, 3 sprints, is 2nd in 3 races
Verstappen is 3rd in 6 races, 3 sprints
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 6 |
| Mexico | 26 | 15 |
| Brazil | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 6 |
| Vegas | 19 | 15 |
| Qatar | 19 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 6 |
| Abu Dhabi | 19 | 15 |
| Total | 438 | 439 |
Champion: Verstappen
This shows how slim Norris’ margin for error is. Winning half the remaining races could cost him the championship if Verstappen snags a podium in each of the last six races.
Scenario 8:
Norris wins 3 races, 3 sprints, is 2nd in 3 races
Verstappen is 2nd in 2 races, 1 sprint, 3rd in 2 races, 1 sprint, 4th in 2 races, 1 sprint
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 26 | 18 |
| Brazil | 26 | 15 |
| Sprint | 8 | 6 |
| Vegas | 19 | 15 |
| Qatar | 19 | 12 |
| Sprint | 8 | 5 |
| Abu Dhabi | 19 | 12 |
| Total | 438 | 439 |
Champion: Verstappen
Despite adding more variety to Verstappen’s results, Norris gets the same ending: he loses the championship by one point.
Scenario 9:
Norris’ and Verstappen’s results from their last 6 races are replicated over the final 6 races; Norris wins each sprint while Verstappen’s 2nd
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 19 | 10 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Mexico | 11 | 12 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Vegas | 16 | 8 |
| Qatar | 13 | 10 |
| Sprint | 8 | 7 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 414 | 428 |
Champion: Verstappen
Norris has taken a sizeable chunk out of Verstappen’s lead since Hungary, six races ago. But Norris falls short even if that six-race trend is replicated and he’s awarded fastest-lap points and sprint wins.
Scenario 10:
Norris’ and Verstappen’s results from their last 3 races are replicated twice over the final 6 races. Norris wins sprints while Verstappen’s 5th in 3 sprints
| Norris | Verstappen | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Points | 279 | 331 |
| Austin | 16 | 8 |
| Sprint | 8 | 4 |
| Mexico | 13 | 10 |
| Brazil | 26 | 18 |
| Sprint | 8 | 4 |
| Vegas | 16 | 8 |
| Qatar | 13 | 10 |
| Sprint | 8 | 4 |
| Abu Dhabi | 26 | 18 |
| Total | 413 | 415 |
Norris draws closer in this scenario, with every race result since Monza repeated twice, but the championship remains just outside his grasp.
Champion: Verstappen
These are 10 out of an almost endless number of scenarios that could play out over the next few weeks. The smallest mistake or mechanical retirement from Norris or Verstappen could change the course of the championship. If Norris wants to return a drivers’ championship to McLaren, he’ll likely need to be near perfect, while Verstappen must maximize every Grand Prix if he intends to win his fourth straight championship.
