The NFL’s reimagined kickoff rules, which aimed to spice up a stale play, have been live for one month.
Kickers pound dynamic kickoffs from the 35-yard line as every other player stands still in the receiving end. One return touchdown was scored – the Cardinals’ DeeJay Dallas burned the Bills in Week 1 – and a tidal wave of touchbacks that were spotted at the 30 showed that coaches still love to play it safe.
We analyzed data and game film to assess the new format’s muted impact, implications for different teams, and the future of the rules. Here are 10 quick-hit findings.
Returns are barely up
The 656 kickoffs taken across the league through Thursday produced 447 touchbacks (68% of kicks) and 191 returns (29%) for 5,009 return yards – an average of 26.2 yards, which would smash the existing high for a season of 23.8. A few errant kicks were penalized for drifting out of bounds or falling short of the 20-yard landing zone.
The average team runs back 1.5 kickoffs per game. That’s greater than last year’s record low of 1.1 returns but translates to the second-lowest average in NFL history, per Pro Football Reference.
Instead of dwindling with the new rules, a touchback rate that ballooned to 73% in 2023 hasn’t come down as much as the league surely hoped.
Teams want to avoid catastrophe
The bulk of the NFL – 26 squads – has booted touchbacks on at least half of kickoffs. The 14 teams that aimed for the end zone at least 80% of the time instinctively opted to lock in their defensive starting field position.
Only the Commanders, Saints, Panthers, Dolphins, Texans, and Raiders have welcomed risk to varying degrees by tending to invite returns.
In several markets, the revamped format’s been a nonfactor.
The Steelers and Packers returned one kickoff apiece in September for 13 and 24 yards, respectively. The Rams covered one kick and dialed up 20 touchbacks from punter Ethan Evans. The Bills’ 94.4% touchback rate (17 of 18) in Weeks 2-4 was a response to being scored on and taking an out-of-bounds penalty in the season opener.
Arizona’s kickoff unit recorded 17 touchbacks, was flagged once for missing the landing zone, and surrendered two explosive plays (53-yard return from the Bills’ Brandon Codrington, 41-yarder from the Rams’ Blake Corum). Those slipups explain why the touchback’s alluring.
Huge returns are this valuable
Dallas – the Cardinals’ fourth-string running back and go-to kick returner – surged through a gap in the middle of the field and forced three simultaneous missed tackles on his historic 96-yard score against the Bills. It was one of six returns to date that exceeded 40 yards.
In Week 1’s Bears-Titans game, Chicago’s blocking walled off seven defenders to let DeAndre Carter sprint down the right sideline. His 67-yard return was worth 3.31 expected points, according to Pro Football Reference’s calculations, and it jumpstarted the Bears’ comeback from a 17-0 deficit.
In Week 3’s Bengals-Commanders clash, Washington’s Austin Ekeler scooped a one-hop line drive and swerved from left to right to escape the first wave of coverage. His 62-yard return was worth 3.38 expected points, and it set up a short touchdown drive in the Commanders’ 38-33 upset win.
Two kickers are shining
Signing Austin Seibert to replace Cade York after Week 1 – York missed two field goals and sent a kickoff out of bounds – helped Washington grab the NFC East lead.
Seibert is 10-for-10 on field goals and invited returns on 16 of 21 kickoffs (23.8% touchback rate) during a three-game win streak. Against the Bengals, he landed five kickoffs between the goal line and 3-yard line, and none were run back beyond the 30. Opponents have had to drive far to expose the Commanders’ weak defense.
Blake Grupe’s immaculate ball placement in Week 1 – he stuck nine straight kickoffs between the goal line and the 5 – helped the Saints trounce the Panthers, The Ringer’s Austin Gayle pointed out. Grupe invited returns last month on 19 of 27 kickoffs (29.6% touchback rate), and only five crossed the 30. Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi, who helped craft and implement the new format, trusts Grupe and his tacklers to execute.
One workhorse is overmatched
Raheem Blackshear’s league-high 12 returns for 310 yards, or 25.8 on average, haven’t counterbalanced the Panthers’ offensive and defensive woes.
Blackshear’s longest return topped out at 31 yards. Nine were stopped inside the 30. Drives following his 12 returns produced 17 points (1.4 per series), five punts, a turnover on downs, and three Bryce Young interceptions before the quarterback was benched. Kicking to Carolina, like Grupe kept doing in Week 1, is smart.
Bouncing touchbacks are powerful
Lions kicker Jake Bates pinned the Seahawks last Monday night following Jared Goff’s startling touchdown catch. Bates’ low, uncatchable, inch-perfect kickoff landed at Seattle’s 1 before it caromed through the end zone, which spotted the ball at the 20, not the 30, under the intricacies of the touchback rule.
Bates’ precision cost Seattle 10 yards and subtracted 0.66 expected points (0.28 instead of 0.94) to start the offensive drive, per Pro Football Reference. It was the seventh touchback spotted at the 20 through four weeks.
Kickers aren’t hitting
One kicker recorded a tackle in September, and it happened on the final kickoff of the month. Bates got credit for nudging Dee Williams out of bounds in Monday’s fourth quarter even though a Seahawks blocker was flagged for holding.
Kickers aren’t hitting for a few reasons: They’re walloping all those touchbacks; they not allowed to cross midfield until the ball lands, which distances them from the returner; and they’ve squandered tackling opportunities. Whiffs by Buffalo’s Tyler Bass (spun around by Dallas), Arizona’s Matt Prater (fell over and couldn’t trip Codrington), and Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson (jogged backward and didn’t touch Ekeler) lengthened various big returns.
Defenders aren’t kicking
The idea that strong-legged safeties might initiate some kickoffs was floated before the season. Teams planned to leverage the skill sets of experienced tacklers who can stick kicks inside the landing zone.
This quirk hasn’t materialized: Kickers or punters took all 656 kickoffs. Most teams lean on one specialist. The Falcons split the work between punter Bradley Pinion and marksman Younghoe Koo, who took 13 kickoffs and nailed long, last-second field goals to win or force overtime in Weeks 4 and 5.
If strategies shift, Kansas City’s Justin Reid is one safety who may be tapped to kick. Reid booted five touchbacks on seven tries for the 2022 Chiefs when they experimented with lightening Harrison Butker’s workload.
Onside kicks have fizzled
The surprise kick that once sparked the Saints to Super Bowl glory was legislated out of the rulebook. Onside kicks are now reserved for trailing teams in the fourth quarter and must be declared in advance.
Out of 10 declared onside kicks, the Cowboys recovered one when the Ravens bobbled Brandon Aubrey’s slow dribbler along the turf. Dallas outscored Baltimore 19-0 in the fourth frame of an eventual three-point loss.
Nine attempts failed despite some innovative efforts. The Vikings fell on Packers punter Daniel Whelan’s drop-kick last weekend after it didn’t bounce into the air. The Dolphins’ onside punt following a Titans safety was penalized for sailing untouched beyond the designated setup zone, which confused people. (For clarity: Onside kicks can’t travel more than 25 yards from the spot of the kick.)
What could and should change
Cold weather wreaks havoc on kicking, theScore’s Scott Stinson noted recently. More field goals fly wide and fewer kickoffs reach the goal line as the wind whips and temperatures plummet. Come December, that could create more return scores, fumbles, chaos, and excitement.
The league needs to consider two rule changes that relate to ball placement in the offseason.
The NFL could move back the kickoff spot to the kicking team’s 30 – 5 yards further away from the landing zone.
Or it could disincentive touchbacks by spotting them at the opposing 35 – 5 yards closer to scoring territory. Roger Goodell acknowledged on NFL Network this week that moving touchbacks forward would be an immediate “game-changer.”
Either tweak could be adopted with a keystroke and replace dead plays with legitimately dynamic returns.
