It’s win-or-go-home time already for four teams in baseball’s postseason.
This is Year 3 of the 12-team postseason format and, in the previous two years, the team that won Game 1 went on to win all eight Wild Card Series. Seven of the eight were sweeps. Only one team, the Mets against the Padres in 2022, forced a Game 3, and the Mets started Jacob deGrom in Game 2 to make it happen. San Diego rallied to win the series, however.
On Wednesday, four teams — the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Orioles — will look to extend their seasons to Thursday after dropping Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. The Astros, Braves, and Orioles combined to score one run Tuesday and it was a too little, too late ninth-inning run by Houston. The Padres, Royals, and Tigers all got ace performances from their aces in Game 1.
Lose Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and suddenly your season is on the line. It’s a short best-of-three series and time is limited to make a comeback. Here’s one thing each of Tuesday’s Game 1 losers must do in Game 2 to force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday.
Atlanta Braves: Fried must deliver a gem
Because of Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets and Chris Sale’s nagging back issue, the Braves had to scramble and start rookie righty AJ Smith-Shawver in Game 1 against the Padres on Monday. No one else was available to pitch on normal rest. It did not go well. Smith-Shawver put Atlanta in an early 3-0 hole and got only four outs. That forced three relievers (Aaron Bummer, Jesse Chavez, Luke Jackson) to cover 6 2/3 innings, which they did effectively.
In Game 2, the Braves will give the ball to Max Fried, who for so long has led the rotation and been the team’s stabilizer. He started — and dominated in — the Game 6 World Series clincher in 2022. Pitching in big games is nothing new. With Sale unavailable, Fried is The Guy the Braves want on the mound in a win or go home game. He has to do for Atlanta what Michael King did for the Padres on Monday, and smother the other team into the late innings. A strong pitching performance feels imperative for the Braves.
Baltimore Orioles: Get on the board early
Obvious statement is obvious: The Orioles have lost nine consecutive postseason games dating back to 2014 and that streak has to end to force a Game 3. I mean, duh. This current group of players is 0-4 in October the last two years and has scored two runs or fewer in three of those four games. It doesn’t take long for this to become A Thing. It’s really easy for fans to become demoralized and feel hopeless. Players are much better at turning the page, but yeah, it becomes a A Thing quickly.
Baltimore would really benefit from an early run(s) against Seth Lugo in Game 2. It doesn’t have to be a crooked number in the first inning, though of course the O’s would love to do that. A Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Santander solo homer in the first would do the trick. Just get on the board early, force a Royals team that has scored two or fewer runs nine times in their last 12 games (dating back to the regular season) to play from behind, and the vibes will shift quickly.
Houston Astros: Get more from the bottom of the order
The good news: Houston does not have to face Tarik Skubal in Game 2. Man is he good. The bad news: Detroit is going to hit the Astros with pitching “chaos,” as manager A.J. Hinch called it before the Wild Card Series. The Tigers have used bullpen games and openers behind Skubal for weeks, and they announced lefty Tyler Holton as their “probable” starter for Game 2.
Astros hitters might see four different pitchers in four at-bats in Game 2. The Tigers are unpredictable with their pitching and they make life awfully tough on the opposing team. They’re not unbeatable. Just hard to beat.
Anyway, the top of the Astros lineup had the best and most productive at-bats against Skubal. Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman went a combined 5 for 16 (.313) with a double (Alvarez) and a near homer (Bregman) in Game 1. The rest of the lineup, the 5-9 hitters, went a combined 2 for 17 (.118) with seven strikeouts. That’s not going to cut it. The bottom of the order has to contribute in Game 2. As good as Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, and Bregman are, they can’t do it alone.
Milwaukee Brewers: Limit the mistakes
Three of the four games Monday were well-pitched, low-scoring games. Brewers vs. Mets was more chaotic. There were three lead changes in the first four innings before the Mets took control of the game with a five-run top of the fifth. That five-run rally was built on a series of mistakes by a Brewers team that is usually pretty buttoned-up. Consider:
- Jackson Chourio misplayed a hard-hit line drive into a double to start the rally.
- Joel Payamps did not step on first base on an infield single, which would have been the third out.
- Aaron Ashby left a first pitch sinker up to Mark Vientos for a two-run single.
- Ashby hung a two-strike curveball to J.D. Martinez for a two-run single.
The rally started with a defensive misplay — to be fair to Chourio, it was a difficult play, but it was a play I want my left fielder to make — and the inning was extended by another defensive misplay when Payamps missed first base. Ashby then made two bad pitches that the Mets turned into runs. The Brewers opened the door and the Mets stormed through it.
We should also mention the decision to pull Freddy Peralta after only four innings and 68 pitches. Not hard to consider that a mistake now that we know what came afterward. In the defense of Brewers manager Pat Murphy, Peralta was wobbly in his four innings, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has been nails all year. Pulling starters early is what they do. It just didn’t work in Game 1.
Needless to say, Milwaukee has to tighten things up to save their season Wednesday. The Mets have way too good of an offense to give them extra outs, an extra 90 feet, mistake two-strike pitches, etc. Mistakes equal losses in October and the Brewers bunched several together in the fifth inning Tuesday. If it continues, their season will end. They have to clean it up.
