ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. stirred up a ruckus last week when he suggested the NFL should ban two-high safety defenses to help struggling passing offenses.
Kiper’s frustrations are rooted in the overall dip in passing numbers across the league. For the first time since 1989, there were more rushing touchdowns (36) than passing touchdowns (35) in Week 1. Through three weeks, NFL quarterbacks have combined for 118 passing touchdowns, which continues a recent downward trend.
Although passing numbers are dipping, the usage of two-high safeties remains steady. It was 20% in 2020 and peaked in 2023 at 22.6%, according to TruMedia. The league average this season is 21.6%, similar to 2021 and 2022.
But if two-high safety usage remains steady, how do we explain the drop in passing numbers?
One NFC analytics staffer suggested that offenses tend to run the ball at an increased rate early in the season because there is less information on what coverages opposing defenses will play.
An NFC offensive assistant, meanwhile, pointed to the lack of continuity between offensive coordinators and starting quarterbacks. The assistant also noted the overall struggles shared among young quarterbacks with high draft pedigree, such as Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young.
Only six offensive coordinators have been with their respective team for at least two-plus seasons – Detroit’s Ben Johnson, Green Bay’s Adam Stenovich, Jacksonville’s Press Taylor, Miami’s Frank Smith, Minnesota’s Wes Phillips, and the New York Giants’ Mike Kafka. Among them, only three have been paired with their respective starting quarterback during that span.
While passing numbers have nosedived, we’ve also witnessed the return of ball-hawking safeties.
Half of the eight defensive players to record multiple interceptions this season are safeties, including Detroit’s Kerby Joseph, Green Bay’s Xavier McKinney, New Orleans’ Tyrann Mathieu, and Philadelphia’s Reed Blankenship.
This emergence comes at a time when cornerbacks are being prioritized over safeties.
In April’s NFL draft, three cornerbacks were taken in the first round and seven were selected before the first safety (Giants’ Tyler Nubin, No. 47) came off the board in the second round. During the 2023 draft, six cornerbacks were selected, including four first-rounders, before Detroit drafted safety Brian Branch in the second round at No. 45.
McKinney signed a four-year, free-agent deal worth $67 million and is already proving his worth in Green Bay. He’s recorded an interception in every game so far to match his total from last season.
Since 2020, a cornerback has finished as the league’s interception leader three times. Xavien Howard tallied 10 in 2020, Trevon Diggs registered 11 in 2021, and Daron Bland grabbed nine in 2023. In 2022, three safeties – C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Justin Simmons – led the NFL in interceptions, albeit with six each.
McKinney was deployed as a single-high safety during his interception of Titans quarterback Will Levis last weekend, and he displayed elite tracking skills and speed to haul in the football near the left sideline.
“I’m trying to get as many (picks) as possible,” McKinney told reporters after the game. “I’m just going to keep going in with that same mindset of trying to get a turnover a game and see where that takes me.”
Across the league, defensive coordinators aim to marry their pass rush to the secondary and play call. Cover 3 is currently used at a league-leading rate of 32.9%, according to MatchQuarters, followed by Cover 1 (21.3%), Quarters (15.9%), Cover 2 (10.7%), Cover 6 (8.4%), and Cover 0 (4.3%).
Constant pressure and quarterback hits usually lead to positive results for the back end. We’ve also seen an uptick in exotic pre-snap looks, causing confusion and chaos for inexperienced and seasoned quarterbacks alike. The league average in disguise rate when compared to last season is up nearly five percentage points to about 30%, per MatchQuarters.
“Disguises have gotten really sweaty across the board,” one AFC executive said. “A lot of the tape you put on, you’re seeing disguises that morph into some elite calls … that wasn’t necessarily the case a decade ago.”
The Packers, led by first-year coordinator Jeff Hafley, are tied for fourth-most sacks (11) in the league. Beyond McKinney’s ball-hawking prowess, cornerback Jaire Alexander (two interceptions) is also reaping the benefits.
In Blankenship’s case, both of his interceptions occurred in game-sealing fashion. The first came against the Packers in Week 1, and the second came against the Saints in Week 3.
Although the Eagles have recorded just four sacks – third fewest in the NFL – Philadelphia’s Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat applied pressure when it mattered most last Sunday, and Blankenship picked off Derek Carr with less than one minute to cement the Eagles’ victory.
“We got pressure in (Carr’s) face, we were getting pressure in his face all day,” Blankenship told reporters. “Once that happened, any quarterback is going to start looking down and shorten their throws. He was staring that route down, I just broke on it, trusted my technique, got the job done.”
